Thai Bond Market 2018 Made First Record High Outstanding Bond Over 13 Trillion Baht.
21-1-2019—Mr. Tada Thai Bond Market Association (ThaiBMA) Managing Director disclosed at the press conference about Thai Bond Market Condition 2018
and its trend in 2019 that in 2018 Thai Bond Market kept good growth, reflexed by its first time record high outstanding value over 13 trillion baht and making the 3th year in consecutive record high in long term private bond issuance worth over 800 billion baht and the continue inflowing of foreign capital pushing foreigner holding Thai Bond value to the record high over 1 trillion baht as of November 2018, before shrink down to 980 billion baht at the end of 2018, while the whole year net capital inflow was over 1.3 trillion baht.
Mr.Tada disclosed that Thai Bond Market condition in 2018 made first time over 13 trillion baht in its value to close at 13.06 trillion baht at the year end, 11.5% increased from 11.71% increased last year, while private long term bond issuance made the 3th consecutive year record high over 800 billion baht in 2018 at 878.99 billion baht, 6.2% increased or accounted to 51.15 billion baht increased compared with last year, by the 18% increased of Real Sector group bond issuance but Bank & Finance group’s bond issuance was decreased by 19%.
Short term bond issuance in 2018 was down 7% in 2018 by the Real Sector (not included Bank & Finance group and business group internal lending which was affected by SEC’s regulation adjusted in April 2018 that made bond issuance of Bank & Finance sector down 49% by the reduction of short term fund raising, while over 30% more PN ticket lending internal business group made in 2018, by more convenient reason over bond issuance after SEC adjusted the rule.
For the foreign fund flow in the first 11 months , There were 150 billion net inflow fund which pushed up the foreigner fund holding to over 1 trillion baht record high before shrink down to
985.773 billion baht at the end of 2018, acconted to 11.8% of Government and BOT outstanding bond value. When the net capital inflow was 133.764 billion baht, comprise of 239.255 billion baht worth of net buying of government long term bond and the outflow of government matured short term bond plus the net buyingw orth(
-105.878) billion baht.
Although the market had been depressed by US up trend interest rate but for all the year 2018 it was found 13-42 basis points yield increased of the of Thai Government Bond shorter than 10years term series which was lower than the yield of US Government bond in the same type of term series.While the yield of 10 years- series of Thai Government Bond was down 3 basis points that made the yields curb of up to 10 years series of Thai Government Bond kept lower than the yield curb of US government Bond since 9 January 2019 untill now.
For the yield direction of Thai Government Bond in 2019, Mr.Tada thought the yield of short term bond will be moving near the level of policy rate which predicted that it will be stable in the level of 1.75% for the whole year. When the yield curb of long term bond will make narrow swing closing to present level, as Thailand’s inflation is remain in low level and global economic that will be depressed by trade war.
